Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 6.693453 7.934719 9.305731 10.927345 12.787669 14.849647 17.302460
2025-02-09 5.056929 6.707296 8.705918 11.283281 14.495391 18.341493 23.267248
2025-02-16 3.866595 5.649422 7.983748 11.217181 15.525655 21.008676 28.443526
2025-02-23 2.957117 4.717100 7.188271 10.832594 15.975508 22.865272 32.660449
2025-03-02 2.284871 3.956067 6.458593 10.364231 16.164144 24.290553 36.324773
2025-03-09 1.893753 3.527998 6.118264 10.364507 16.950846 26.534540 41.216916
2025-03-16 1.597598 3.188521 5.846974 10.405726 17.760497 28.829454 46.303643
2025-03-23 1.349891 2.879951 5.569438 10.381722 18.435490 30.939286 51.226975
2025-03-30 1.089859 2.494151 5.096006 9.959011 18.405641 31.934525 54.491249
2025-04-06 0.934103 2.277161 4.885085 9.949963 19.035784 33.983949 59.492851
2025-04-13 0.796929 2.069165 4.656654 9.873247 19.527065 35.822005 64.248929
2025-04-20 0.743210 2.031189 4.750239 10.397764 21.108911 39.554947 72.291091
2025-04-27 0.680784 1.964815 4.784212 10.824969 22.576732 43.236305 80.548744
2025-05-04 0.630415 1.917498 4.851613 11.325436 24.223021 47.335918 89.761328
2025-05-11 0.546525 1.767396 4.673925 11.305947 24.880244 49.736903 96.198991
2025-05-18 0.452200 1.566054 4.348032 10.933158 24.810979 50.819606 100.385996
2025-05-25 0.368257 1.370372 4.000762 10.465433 24.498656 51.418697 103.724420
2025-06-01 0.321637 1.272089 3.872938 10.467108 25.133459 53.807441 110.401383
2025-06-08 0.283148 1.188755 3.768954 10.509124 25.850836 56.388695 117.557013
2025-06-15 0.247071 1.103036 3.644120 10.485055 26.420366 58.710985 124.340714
2025-06-22 0.201936 0.971037 3.369095 10.058741 26.069233 59.192548 127.660662
2025-06-29 0.176763 0.904312 3.266422 10.049629 26.643135 61.549473 134.682799
2025-07-06 0.153004 0.835016 3.143579 9.972253 27.051492 63.587912 141.178914